基本变量对失效概率重要性测度分析的新方法

A NEW METHOD FOR ANALYZING IMPORTANCE MEASURE OF BASIC VARIABLE EFFECT ON FAILURE PROBABILITY

  • 摘要: 在研究矩独立基本变量对响应分布影响的重要性测度的基础上,定义了基本变量对失效概率的重要性测度. 基本变量对失效概率的重要性测度可以直接全面地给出基本变量对结构安全影响的重要程度,因而该重要性测度将更具有工程指导作用. 文中分析了所定义基本变量对失效概率影响重要性测度的基本性质,并基于鞍点线抽样在求解可靠度时不受随机变量分布形式的限制及其效率和精度较高的优点,提出了求解该重要性测度的鞍点线抽样方法.

     

    Abstract: From the moment-independent importancemeasure of basic variable effect on response distribution, an importancemeasure is defined to describe the effect of basic variable on failureprobability. Compared with the importance measure of the basic variableeffect on the response distribution, this measure can directly provide the globaleffect of the variables on the structural safety, so can providemore guidance in engineering design than the former. The basic properties ofthe importance measure of the basic variable effect on the failureprobability are discussed in this paper. Since the saddlepoint based linesampling method is independent of the distribution types of the randomvariables, and has the advantages of high accuracy and efficiency, thismethod is employed to estimate the defined importance measure.

     

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