Abstract: The landslide rolling stone disaster is a prevailing natural hazard in the western mountainous regions of China. The rolling stone disasters featured by burstiness and uncertainty are hard to forecast and prevent the geological disaster. Based on the particle contact theory and considering the random factors in the process of the particle collision, a theoretical model for predicting the velocity of the rolling stone particles after impacting the slope is established. According to the theorem of impulse and momentum moment, the basic equations of rolling stone particles collision are established, and the analytical solutions of the rebound velocity after the rolling stone particles impacting the slope are obtained. The results show that the analytical solutions of the rebound velocity after impacting include the random factors such as slope angle, the velocity and angle of particles on the slope, incident velocity, angle and impact angle. It is found that the model results agree well with the experimental results when the impact angle of incident rolling stone particle impacts the particle on the slope is changed. At the same time, this paper predicts the probability distribution of the rebound velocity, rebound angle and rebound rotational angular velocity after the collision. The results show that the probability distributions of rebound velocity, rebound angle and rebound rotation angular velocity follow Gaussian distribution. When the velocity of particles on the slope and the slope angle change, they have no qualitative influence on the rebound particle velocity, rebound angle and the rebound rotation angular velocity probability distribution, but they have significant influence on the center parameters of probability distribution.